A look ahead to June
8 April, 2024
By Anton Stoyanov
With the 2024 European Parliament (EP) election on the horizon, each citizen sees a Europe much changed from what it was 5 years ago. Having been faced by two earthshattering crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian war on Ukraine, the EU has gone through undisputed change.
In the first of a series of short articles, RPP will provide you with a top-level rundown of where each political group is headed and how voters are responding to the last 5 years of policymaking and crisis management.
European People's Party (EPP)
The EPP, historically a dominant force in European politics, faces challenges amidst shifting dynamics. While it retains considerable influence, internal divisions over EU integration, migration and sustainability have put a dent in its once unchallenged position. Nonetheless, the EPP is expected to maintain its lead, while adopting a rightward shift to accommodate a drastic change in perspective among voters and to ensure workable majorities in the upcoming Parliament.
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
Polls suggest that the S&D will likely retain its 2nd place – although significantly bruised. Internal discord and a general loss of influence across the entire continent has left the Group reeling. Over the coming months of campaigning, the S&D will be hard pressed to forge itself a new identity that takes into account the changes that Europe has gone through over the last 5 years.
Renew Europe (RE)
Following the 2019 election, the sizable RE delegation positioned the Group as a key pillar of the von der Leyen majority in the EP and as kingmaker in almost all votes throughout the mandate. Weak performances across the continent, however, will likely relegate Renew to 4th or potentially 5th place, trailing behind the rising conservative and far-right parties.
European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
ECR, a coalition of conservative and Eurosceptic parties, is expected to consolidate its position as a vocal force within the EP and substantially increase its vote share. Over the last year of the current mandate the ECR displayed a clear desire to play a formative role in the EU’s decision making and with the addition of new strong conservative voices, it will become one of the key players to look at over the next 5 years.
Identity and Democracy (ID)
ID, representing nationalist and populist parties, is also likely to amplify its presence in the EP. Capitalizing on anti-immigration and Eurosceptic sentiments, ID aims to challenge the political consensus. Bolstered by recent high performances, the group will present a great challenge to mainstream parties and their efforts to legislate and build majorities.
Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA)
Riding on a Green wave in 2019, the Greens made substantial gains. Economic hardships and a shift of focus away from climate change, however, has meant that such parties face a steep hill if they wish to maintain their current standing in the European Parliament.
European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
The Left will maintain its presence in the EP, while suffering a degree of losses. The war in Ukraine has led to significant drop in support for many of the parties that espoused sympathy for the Russian government in the past, while left-wing policies have altogether suffered setbacks across the continent.
Takeaways
The 2024 EP Election will certainly bring about a much more conservative European Parliament – one that would be far more hawkish on the topics of migration and climate change, while simultaneously being much more sovereignist and Eurosceptic. However, with many of the previously small Groups finding themselves in positions of power, we can expect shifts in their rhetoric, aimed at becoming more constructive partners and at being seen as a realistic alternative to the status quo.